The Cycle Time Prediction - Actuals vs Predictions dashboard helps you analyze and understand the accuracy of cycle time predictions determined by the Machine Learning (ML) model as compared to the actual cycle time values. The dashboard focuses on primary Work Items whose status is currently 'Completed'.
The total cycle time for all Completed Work Items is calculated and compared against the predicted cycle time generated by the ML model, which helps you understand if the model predictions are successful. A considerable difference between the actual and predicted cycle time values indicate that the model predictions are imperfect. You can then take preemptive measures to retrain or update the model to generate successful predictions.
As a Delivery Manager, you can find answers for some of the key business scenarios such as:
You can use the filters in the dashboard to analyze information related to projects associated with specific Engineering Managers (up to three levels), cycle time stage, or chose to view data for a specific period.
Cycle Time Stage indicates if the Observation date is in the early, middle, or late stage of a primary Work Item's life cycle. The different phases of Cycle Time Stage are preconfigured with the following values and can be modified based on your requirement:
The Cycle Time Prediction Actuals vs Predictions dashboard consists of the following sections:
Displays the list of distinct Projects that are associated with completed primary Work Items along with the number of primary Work Items, average cycle time remaining, and average predicted cycle time remaining days across all Observation dates. An Observation date is any date when a prediction is generated based on the primary Work Item data observed as of that date.
You can select a particular Project to drive the data displayed in subsequent sections and view information only related to the selected Project.
Displays a histogram chart that provides a visual representation of the distribution of Average Cycle Time Remaining days along with the number of observations. The Average Cycle Time Remaining days are distributed based on auto-assigned buckets or bins and indicate the number of related Observations.
You can select a particular bucket to drive data displayed in the subsequent sections and view Work Item details related to the selection.
Note: This chart does not drive the data displayed in the Predicted vs Actual Cycle Time Remaining bubble chart.
Displays a bubble graph providing a comparison between Actual Cycle Time and Predicted Cycle Time for each completed primary Work Item. The horizontal axis represents the Average Predicted Cycle Time and the vertical axis represents Average Cycle Time with each bubble corresponding to a primary Work Item. The position of the bubble in the graph indicates if the predicted values are closer to the actual values and signifies if the model is successful. You can select a particular bubble to drive data displayed in the subsequent sections.
The data is this grid is driven by selections made in the previous sections and displays details about the primary Work Items, such as the Work Item number, date when the Work Item first moved to an In Progress status, date when the Work Item moved to the Completed status, and the total number of daily Observations. Click the Source URL icon against a Work Item to launch the corresponding source system and view more details.
You can also select a particular Work Item to filter data in the subsequent sections and view information related to the selected Work Item.
This section displays a grid listing the Observation dates related to the primary Work Items selected in the previous section along with the predicted end date, actual Cycle Time remaining, predicted cycle time remaining, cycle time to date, and total cycle time as of each Observation date. An Observation date is any date when a prediction is generated based on the primary Work Item data as of that date.
These details enable you to compare the actual vs predicted cycle time days as of every single observation date. You can select a specific Observation date to view more details about the top 8 Key Factors associated with Work Items on a selected Observation date.
Displays the top 8 Key Factors that are determined by the Cycle Time Prediction ML model for Work Items as of a selected Observation date. The Key Factors help you identify areas associated with a Work Item that could have had an impact on the cycle time and therefore affecting a Project schedule. For example, Work Items with more idle time could result in an increased cycle time, Work Items with a blocked flag indicate blockers that affects the schedule.
| Metric Name | Description |
|---|---|
| Primary Work Items | Total number of distinct primary Work Items with status as 'Completed'. A primary Work Item is a Work Item of a type that is configured to be in scope for cycle time prediction. |
| Avg Cycle Time Remaining (Days) | Average Cycle Time Remaining (in days) for primary Work Items across all Observation dates. An Observation date is any date when a prediction is generated based on data available as of that date. |
| Avg Predicted Cycle Time Remaining (Days) | Average predicted Cycle Time Remaining (in days) for primary Work Items across all Observation dates. An Observation date is any date when a prediction is generated based on data available as of that date. |
| Projects | Total number of distinct projects that are associated with completed primary Work Items |
| No. of Observations | Total number of distinct daily observations. An Observation date is any date when a prediction is generated based on the data as of that date. |
| Cycle Time Remaining (Days) | The duration in days from the Observation date to the latest Completed date of a Primary Work Item. An Observation date is any date when a prediction is generated based on the data as of that date. |
| Predicted Cycle Time Remaining (Days) | Total number of days to complete the Work Item as predicted by the Cycle Time Prediction ML model and calculated as of the Observation date. |
| Cycle Time To Date (Days) | Total duration between the first In Progress date of the Work Item and the last extraction date. |
| Total Cycle Time (Days) | The duration in days between the earliest In Progress date and the latest Completed date of a Primary Work Item. |
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